After Long time Thought to share My view on market . As I said earlier that just sending Report Everyday does not Surve the purpose as its easily available every where . So I have decided to write my Favourite people whenever there is some confusion arise. Last time if you remember , when market was falling and Nifty reached to 9950 Level . Every 2nd analyst was talking about 9700 and more down side. I have clearly written that - Dont see any further fall and market will reverse from this level . Rest what ever has happened, you all know . I have sated my Nifty target of 12000 till 2019 March long back and still I will not change that . Before , I give you a brief idea and my view on next market trend, lets discuss what actually has happened in last 3 months, which are very important and effected market .
Trump - This is a game changer name in world economy now . Unpredictable person and his Tweets now rewarding volatility to market. In my last article I have written , Dont see any war between North Korea and USA . On 12th The most awaited meeting going to take place in Singapore. I am not so optimistic on the out come as , still I dont believe that NK has changed its stand overnight without any cruel intention. That will get revealed soon and any peace and negotiation will take time and will be an on going process. After all rarely world leaders wants to see the world peaceful.
Crude - The oil is on boil . I always told that , dont see oil trading above $70 but it reached to $86 and now resting near $77. There is no reason available which will take crude so higher other than Saudi intention to list its biggest well Giant at premium price . High crude is dangerous for India as its effect the CA so fiscal math. India was enjoying low crude price since 2014 which now gone reverse. De Regulation of oil price has empowered oil companies to raise price frequently , and I think high oil price effect how much every one understand. But I still see crude is coming down bellow $70 soon.
SEBI- Now a days every regulators are coming very harsh as they empowered lie never before . Sending tough instruction to MF to restructure its MF scheme and make those more transparent . Recent ASM guideline on over 100 stocks ( Means there will be 100% margin requirement to buy the stocks and script movement restricted with Bi monthly review) specially Midcaps triggered huge sell off in Midcaps and Small caps stocks. Many stocks lost over 40% in few days irrespective of their good financial health . Midcaps and Small caps built market structure , and if they become weak, Market lose stability. Large caps done well but that does not increase confidence.
Election - Recent state election of Karnataka has given an opportunity to opposition that BJP is not un deferrable and a strong alliance can do the tricks. Defeat in Karnataka also given investors a shocker as people started believing that Modi Magic not working. Its indicating also there may be a chance of weak majority or a defeat of BJP Govt in 2019 Election. There is no doubt that PM is having a uphill task to complete specially on Employment in last few months . Scope is limited as GOVT cannot don't have much Room to spend as really they don't have much money left. So now few more state election like MP, Rajasthan will be on radar which will set the final tune of 2019 Election. I will not be surprised to see BJP getting less Numbers there or even they are getting defeated. There is no doubt that BJP has done many reforms and tried to make corruption out from system but common man life has not changed and they waited patiently , though its Farmers or Poor. Young Indian who were the main strength of PM and Largest vote bank, has not got any reward against their sacrifice . So it will be very tough for Govt to make people understand actually how they benefited the common man . Opposition exactly were waiting for this and now they got the way also
Well leaving politics aside. Let me tell you that - India does not need any specific political party to grow . We are back as the fastest GROWING country by clocking 7.7% in Q4 and 6.7% YOY. Remember , our country has gone through two most toughest change of Demo and GST . Getting back the same Growth so fast indicates the inner strength. Strong demand and consumption will be the key and this country can easily grow at average 9% in next 10 to 15 years. Only worry is still PVT Capex cycle has not started and dont think that this will start when Election is so near.
In past few days Nifty has seen top most volatility . From recent high of 10929 it has come down to 10400 level and than closed near 10700 yesterday . What next ? . As I said my target of Nifty trading at 1200 till march 2019. Why I am confident is because , our Q4 numbers are not so drastic . Growth is back on track . CRUDE also will see cooling off . RBI has raised interest rates with a neutral stand and dont see they are hiking rates again in next 6 Months. Midcaps and small cap has seen a very meaning full correction and ready for a reversal. Though RBI has hiked the rate but dont see Indians are exiting MF route so early To select Fixed income isntruments. when I speak to investors , they are very calm and understood the MF CONCEPT a bit. Inflow will come back again , recent SIP in flow data is encouraging . 1st time I am seeing Indians are moving from savings to investment culture . Also they moved from spend and save to Invest and spend culture. After Demo , people has suddenly identified the risk of over spending and moved to investment to create wealth. This has to stay here at least for another 10 to 15years time. But as I always said stock selection will be challenge and that will be the key to make money . Future Multi Baggers are trading so cheap, Just dont miss the opportunity .
I feel nifty Nifty up words journey here to stay and even it can see 12000 soon if does not break 10350 . Yes there might be some volatility and small correction but dont see a large sell off like what we seen recently . So you can remain long in market with a SL placed at 10350 and will inform you the next step once its reaches to 12000. Breaking 10350 will change the equation , so as of now remain long . But as said have quality stocks and Recently we have added very god Research analyst for you whose advice is available on our Frontizza Mobile apps . If you still not aware pls speak to any of our people who will guide you on this .
So stay invested - and Enjoy market rally .