India will claim the top spot among the world's fastest-growing major economies this year. Though rising trade tensions between the United States and China may restrain that growth, But as of now chances are Less.
Though in the short-term a trade war between US and China may impact global trade including India, in the long-term, India is likely to benefit as China will be forced to devaluate its currency to remain a dominant player in the world market.For the next fiscal year, growth is expected to average 7.5 percent, a touch lower than the IMF's forecast of 7.8 percent.
After growth slowed sharply for much of last year, India regained its status as the world's fastest-growing major economy in the quarter ending December 2017. The slowdown was mainly driven by the government's sudden decision in November 2016 to scrap high-value currency notes and a botched implementation of a goods and services tax (GST) in July last year. While India's retail inflation has eased this year and hit a five-month low in March, it remained above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent. But increased government spending ahead of national elections next year is yet to kick in and that is expected to be inflationary. Inflation is forecast to average 4.7 percent in the fiscal year ending next March, and 4.9 percent the following year.
India Meteorological Department has forecast a normal monsoon in 2018 - a boon for the farm sector that accounts for about 15 percent of India's $2 trillion economy and employs more than half its 1.3 billion people. A normal monsoon would boost grain production and keep a lid on food price inflation, which tends to be volatile, but especially in India. The Reserve Bank of India has kept interest rates steady after a 25 basis-point cut to the repo rate in August last year. It is forecast to keep rates on hold until the second half of next year.